One integrated system covering the statewide electorate, Governor, U.S. Senate, all 13 U.S. House districts, all 38 State Senate districts, and all 110 State House districts. That is 161 district/riding profiles plus two statewide race modules.
Live-election accuracy standard. Primary winners are identified from post-primary result compilations and cross-checks, but major-party general nominations remain subject to official canvass and the state’s evolving November candidate listing. No missing electorate number is invented. Modeled sensitivity is never labeled as an observed result.
Riding rule: each boundary creates its own electorate. Congressional, State Senate and State House districts therefore require their own CVAP/registration/turnout profile. Michigan’s 2026 Senate remap means old upper-chamber ACS counts cannot simply be reused.
02 · Previous elections / turnaround
Statewide swing and ticket split
Race
Democratic
Republican
Margin
2020 President
Biden 2,804,040 · 50.62%
Trump 2,649,852 · 47.84%
D +154,188
2022 Governor
Whitmer 2,430,505 · 54.47%
Dixon 1,960,635 · 43.94%
D +469,870 / +10.53 pts
2024 President
Harris 2,736,533 · 48.3%
Trump 2,816,636 · 49.7%
R +80,103
2024 U.S. Senate
Slotkin 2,712,686 · 48.64%
Rogers 2,693,680 · 48.30%
D +19,006
Measured turnaround: the presidential margin shifted 234,291 votes toward Republicans between 2020 and 2024, while Democrats still won the 2024 Senate race. That is empirical evidence for a candidate-specific, ticket-split model.
03 · Governor
Statewide executive anchor
Jocelyn Benson
VS
John James
Benson won the Democratic primary decisively; James won the Republican nomination. This becomes the first statewide 2026 benchmark in the cascade.
Primary winners; official canvass governs final certified status.
04 · U.S. Senate
Statewide federal benchmark
Abdul El-Sayed
VS
Mike Rogers
El-Sayed won a very close Democratic primary. Rogers supplies a direct 2024 candidate baseline: he lost the previous Senate race by only 19,006 votes while Trump carried Michigan.
Use Governor ↔ Senate delta as the statewide ticket-splitting indicator.
05 · 13 U.S. House districts
Post-primary congressional matchups
Each congressional riding should ultimately carry its exact 119th-CD CVAP, registration, 2020/2022/2024 turnout and demographic/economic profile. The candidate layer below is populated now; district CVAP should be ingested from the Census 2020–2024 CVAP special tabulation rather than guessed.
MI-01Incumbent R
Callie Barr
VS
Jack Bergman
Attorney / military-family advocate vs incumbent
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-02Incumbent R
Ben Ambrose
VS
John Moolenaar
Ambrose primary winner vs incumbent; Green Charlotte Magoon also listed
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-03Incumbent D
Hillary Scholten
VS
Terri DeBoer
Scholten seeks third term; DeBoer won GOP primary
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-04Incumbent R
Sean McCann
VS
Bill Huizenga
McCann won D primary; Green Shafina Barnett also listed
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-05Incumbent R
Christian Vukasovich
VS
Tim Walberg
General-election major-party matchup
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-06Incumbent D
Debbie Dingell
VS
Heather Smiley
General-election major-party matchup
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-07Incumbent R
William Lawrence
VS
Tom Barrett
High-priority competitive seat
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-08Incumbent D
Kristen McDonald Rivet
VS
Thomas J. Smith
Smith won GOP primary after suspending campaign
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-09Incumbent R
Ray Pooley
VS
Lisa McClain
General-election major-party matchup
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-10Open
Christina Hines
VS
Michael Bouchard
John James vacated seat to run for Governor
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-11Open
Jeremy Moss
VS
Ethan Baker
Green Ryan Teasdale + Independent Anil Kumar also listed
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-12Incumbent D
Rashida Tlaib
VS
James Hooper
General-election major-party matchup
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
MI-13Incumbent D lost primary
Donavan McKinney
VS
Taras 'T.P.' Nykoriak
Independent Maurice Morton also listed
Post-primary matchup; verify against Michigan's official November candidate listing as canvass updates.
06 · 38 Michigan State Senate districts
Every upper-chamber riding — candidates + baseline
38Total districtsAll on 2026 ballot
22Open/remapped profilesBased on incumbent/term-limit/remap status
Critical geography correction: Census says Michigan delineated a new upper-chamber plan for the 2026 election cycle. Current ACS/CVAP products still contain 2024 State Legislative Districts; Census says ACS data for the 2026 SLDs will be released later. Therefore the Senate profiles below intentionally say “CVAP pending” rather than attaching stale electorate counts.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+51.82024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Erika Geiss, who was re-elected with 71.57% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
Justin Onwenu 18,921 primary votes · 58.70%
Patrick O'Connell 4,059 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+2.52024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Sylvia Santana, who was re-elected with 67.99% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
Abbas Alawieh 23,722 primary votes · 58.88%
Harry Sawicki 9,062 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+76.82024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Stephanie Chang, who was re-elected with 85.67% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
John Conyers III 9,416 primary votes · 24.40%
Mark Ashley Price 988 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+14.92024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Dayna Polehanki, who was re-elected with 61.07% of the vote in 2022, is eligible for re-election but was moved into the 8th district as a result of redistricting.
Matt Koleszar 40,767 primary votes · 100.00%
Estelle Oliansky 15,318 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+77.72024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Mary Cavanagh, who was elected with 68.01% of the vote in 2022, is eligible for re-election.
Mary Cavanagh 37,331 primary votes · 85.70%
Joi Pokerwinski 2,276 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+36.22024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Jeremy Moss, who was re-elected with 74.21% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited and running for Congress.
Jason Hoskins 28,886 primary votes · 57.12%
Anthony Paesano 11,677 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+11.62024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Mallory McMorrow, who was re-elected with 78.94% of the vote in 2022, was retiring to run for U.S. Senate. McMorrow suspended her campaign in July 2026. Fellow Democratic state senator Dayna Polehanki was moved into this district as a result of redistricting.
Dayna Polehanki 43,387 primary votes · 100.00%
Kenneth D. Massey 21,187 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+5.12024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican Michael Webber, who was re-elected with 50.35% of the vote in 2022, is eligible for re-election.
Theresa Brooks 17,451 primary votes · 46.73%
Michael Webber (incumbent) 20,127 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+30.52024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Paul Wojno, who was re-elected with 67.70% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
Natalie Price 36,549 primary votes · 64.96%
Michelle Nard 11,420 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+7.22024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Kevin Hertel, who was elected with 50.2% of the vote in 2022, is running for re-election.
Kevin Hertel 35,899 primary votes · 100.00%
John Goldwater 11,609 primary votes · 47.01%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+1.72024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Rosemary Bayer, who was re-elected with 57.17% in 2022, is retiring.
Sean Carlson 23,209 primary votes · 60.08%
Ryan Berman 21,588 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+43.02024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Jeff Irwin, who was re-elected with 74.15% of the vote in 2022, is term-limited.
Felicia Brabec 42,965 primary votes · 75.86%
Jason Rogers 10,632 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+30.02024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican Joe Bellino, who was elected with 65.01% of the vote in 2022, is eligible for re-election.
Deandre Barnes 21,749 primary votes · 100.00%
Joe Bellino 26,258 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+30.02024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican Jonathan Lindsey, who was elected with 65.39% of the vote in 2022, is eligible for re-election.
Ashleigh Baker 11,159 primary votes · 55.24%
Jonathan Lindsey (incumbent) 26,512 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+23.72024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican Thomas Albert, who was elected with 61.96% of the vote in 2022, is eligible for re-election.
Anthony Pennock 25,072 primary votes · 100.00%
Thomas Albert (incumbent) 28,179 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+17.12024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Sean McCann, who was re-elected with 59.79% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited and running for U.S. House.
Julie Rogers 43,435 primary votes · 100.00%
Shaun Young 18,147 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+16.52024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, who was re-elected with 60.95% of the vote in 2022, is term-limited.
Dale Murney 26,943 primary votes · 100.00%
Chris Moraitis 12,716 primary votes · 42.60%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+12.32024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Sarah Anthony, who was elected with 60.29% of the vote in 2022, is eligible for re-election.
Sarah Anthony (incumbent) 41,623 primary votes · 100.00%
Josh Burns 17,768 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+24.02024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, Lana Theis, who was re-elected with 60.68% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
Rob Hower 31,035 primary votes · 100.00%
Mike Murphy 33,981 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+23.12024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, Jim Runestad, who was re-elected with 59.38% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
Greg Hill 18,457 primary votes · 56.40%
Donni Steele 23,145 primary votes · 62.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+27.52024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, Ruth Johnson, who was re-elected with 65.80% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
Edlira Sako 14,592 primary votes · 52.62%
Doug Wozniak 20,828 primary votes · 69.60%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+37.32024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, Dan Lauwers, who was re-elected with 66.83% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
April Osentowski 22,675 primary votes · 100.00%
Andrew Beeler 21,894 primary votes · 62.21%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+27.42024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, Kevin Daley, who was re-elected with 62.45% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
Brendan J. Johnson 15,847 primary votes · 56.97%
Matthew Bierlein 14,181 primary votes · 42.98%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+18.52024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat John Daniel Cherry, who was elected with 64.09% of the vote in 2022, is eligible for re-election.
John Daniel Cherry (incumbent) 35,831 primary votes · 100.00%
Bill Bain 8,214 primary votes · 64.05%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+9.52024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democrat Sam Singh, who was elected with 55.80% of the vote in 2022, is retiring.
Rashida Harrison 17,715 primary votes · 41.76%
Julie DeRose 19,284 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+25.92024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Democratic Majority Leader Winnie Brinks, who was re-elected with 60.30% of the vote in 2022, is term-limited.
Abbie Groff-Blaszak 18,754 primary votes · 47.66%
Brady Middleton 13,314 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+4.52024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, Mark Huizenga, who was re-elected with 49.18% of the vote in 2022, is eligible for a second full term after being initially elected via the 2021 Michigan Senate special election.
Carol Glanville 35,355 primary votes · 83.49%
Mark Huizenga (incumbent) 26,693 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+18.62024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, Roger Victory, who was re-elected with 62.11% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
Chris Kleinjans 24,160 primary votes · 75.40%
John Wetzel 16,514 primary votes · 40.23%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+6.92024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, Jon Bumstead, who was re-elected with 52.83% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
Rebecca Amidon 31,667 primary votes · 100.00%
Kim Cole 20,326 primary votes · 76.16%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+34.72024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, Rick Outman, who was re-elected with 66.25% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
Stan Opal 22,224 primary votes · 100.00%
Gina Johnsen 11,904 primary votes · 32.68%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+31.02024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, Roger Hauck, who was elected with 64.35% of the vote in 2022, is eligible for re-election.
Tyler Landgraf 22,197 primary votes · 100.00%
Roger Hauck (incumbent) 25,941 primary votes · 84.74%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
D+0.92024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The Democratic state senator from this seat, Kristen McDonald Rivet, was elected with 53.38% of the vote in 2022. Rivet later resigned to take a seat in the United States House of Representatives, and fellow Democrat Chedrick Greene was elected in a special election to succeed her.
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+10.72024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, John Damoose, who was elected with 55.46% of the vote in 2022, is eligible for re-election.
Kate Gallup 32,101 primary votes · 78.09%
John Damoose (incumbent) 34,189 primary votes · 100.00%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
NEW UPPER-CHAMBER PLANMichigan Senate boundaries changed for 2026
R+18.12024 presidential vote re-tabulated to new district
Pending Census ACS2026-boundary ACS/CVAP not yet released as of Aug. 11
The incumbent Republican, Ed McBroom, who was re-elected with 62.23% of the vote in 2022, is term- limited.
Kelli van Ginhoven 30,444 primary votes · 100.00%
David Prestin 17,071 primary votes · 53.02%
BOUNDARY AUDIT · Do not attach 2024-SLDU ACS/CVAP counts to this 2026 district. Census states Michigan adopted a new upper-chamber plan for 2026 and current ACS data still cover the 2024 SLD plan.
07 · 110 Michigan State House districts
Full lower-chamber candidate intelligence
This is the section that was missing from the prior build. All 110 profiles are now populated with the 2024 presidential district baseline, incumbent/open-seat status, Democratic and Republican primary winner where a candidate was present, primary vote and share where available, general-election candidate field, context narrative and a baseline competitiveness classification.
110Full profilesNo placeholder-only district cards
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Tyrone Carter, who was re-elected with 81.64% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election and fought off primary challenges from disability rights advocate Teddy Dorsette III and Jermaine Tobey. Valerie Whittaker ran unopposed for the Republican nomination. This is a rematch of the 2024 election.
Tyrone Carter (incumbent) 5,244 primary votes · 69.66%
Valerie Whittaker 486 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Tyrone Carter (incumbent)Republican · Valerie Whittaker
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Tullio Liberati Jr., who was re-elected with 51.82% of the vote in 2024, is retiring. Frank Liberati, the incumbent's brother and a former state representative, as well as Gary Schlack, an Allen Park city councilor, ran to succeed him. Joanna Whaley, an LGBTQIA+ activist and former pastor, defeated both candidates in the August 4th primary. Whaley had received endorsements from Michigan state legislators Stephanie Chang and Laurie Pohutsky, as well as U.S. representative Sarah McBride, the organizations Run for Something and LGBTQ Victory Fund, and multiple caucuses in the Michigan Democratic Party. If elected, Joanna …
Joanna Whaley 6,484 primary votes · 56.36%
Ron Kokinda 3,176 primary votes · 74.40%
Democratic · Joanna WhaleyRepublican · Ron Kokinda
D cascade sensitivity
Toss-up baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Alabas Farhat, who was re-elected with 67.91% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Farhat defeated primary challenges from 2025 Dearborn City Council candidate Othman Ali Alaansi and former Dearborn Board of Education member Hussein Berry. Gus Tarraf ran unopposed in the
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Karen Whitsett, who was unopposed in her bid for re-election in 2024, is retiring. Regina Ross defeated police officer Tyus Monroe, Krystal Larsosa, and Anthony McDonald in the
Regina Ross 6,394 primary votes · 56.03%
Everett Davis 261 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Regina RossRepublican · Everett Davis
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Regina Weiss, who was re-elected with 90.57% of the vote in 2024, is retiring. Candace Calloway, the daughter of Detroit city councilor Angela Whitfield-Calloway, won the
Candace Calloway 10,977 primary votes · 55.94%
Chris Venable 564 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Candace CallowayRepublican · Chris Venable
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Natalie Price, who was re-elected with 66.20% of the vote in 2024, is retiring and running for the state senate. Melanie Macey defeated David Lauer and Charlie Gandy-Thompson in the
Melanie Macey 15,547 primary votes · 65.36%
Mike Steger 5,302 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Melanie MaceyRepublican · Mike Steger
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Tonya Myers Phillips, who was elected with 78.91% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election and defended primary challenges from Seema Ahmad and Oliver Gantt. Myers Phillips had received an endorsement from Detroit mayor Mary Sheffield. Reginald Moorer ran unopposed in the
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Helena Scott, who was re-elected with 87.53% of the vote in 2024, ran for re- election but was defeated by Chris Gilmer-Hill. Scott received an endorsement from Detroit mayor Mary Sheffield, and Gilmer-Hill was endorsed by the Metro Detroit Democratic Socialists of America and Michigan's Working Families Party. Also eliminated in the primary were Deanne Austin and Fedor Kinaya, who suspended his campaign after ballots had been printed. Bruce Langran defeated Tonya Wells in the
Chris Gilmer-Hill 9,705 primary votes · 48.79%
Bruce Langran 621 primary votes · 72.72%
Democratic · Chris Gilmer-HillRepublican · Bruce LangranGreen · Stephen Boyle
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Joe Tate, who was re-elected with 93% of the vote in 2024, was originally retiring to run for U.S. Senate but dropped out. While eligible to seek re-election after dropping out of the Senate race, Tate announced in March 2026 that he would officially retire. Multiple Democrats announced campaigns to succeed Tate, including Darryl Ervin, a previous legislative staffer, Arthur Harrington, a law student and previous staffer for Detroit city councilor Mary Waters, and Toni Mua, a previous state legislative candidate. Several more filed paperwork, including Anthony Eid, a former member of the state's redistricting commissio…
Willie Burton 3,495 primary votes · 23.08%
Michele Lundgren 363 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Willie BurtonRepublican · Michele LundgrenGreen · Jahdante John Elijah SmithWorking Class · Logan AushermanIndependent · Danetta L. Simpson
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Veronica Paiz, who was re-elected with 67.44% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Other candidates who filed paperwork include Democrats Andrew Cyburt and Ryan Nelson. Republican Peter Ochs won his primary unopposed. The Working Class Party nominated Piper Willow Smith as their candidate in this race at a convention.
Democratic · Veronica Paiz (incumbent)Republican · Peter OchsWorking Class · Piper Willow Smith
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Donavan McKinney, who was re-elected with 82.31% of the vote in 2024, is retiring to run for the U.S House. Macomb County commissioner Michael Howard, Kimberly Fisher, and Cranstana Brown Anderson are all seeking the Democratic nomination to succeed McKinney. Fisher later won the primary with 63% of the vote. Republican Dale Walker, who was the nominee for this district in 2024, ran again, as well as Matthew Stafford and former Warren city councilor Eddie Kabacinski. Stafford later won the primary with 54% of the vote.
Kimberly Fisher 6,037 primary votes · 63.19%
Matthew Stafford 582 primary votes · 54.24%
Democratic · Kimberly FisherRepublican · Matthew Stafford
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Kimberly Edwards, who was re-elected with 69.67% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Republicans who filed for this district include Brian Hakola and Randell Shafer, with Shafer winning the primary with 58% of the vote .
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Mai Xiong, who was re-elected with 50.82% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. School bus driver Julie Leonardi is running for the Republican nomination, as well as Mark Foster and Casey Armitage, the president of Michigan Open Carry Inc. Foster won the primary with 36% of the vote.
Mai Xiong (incumbent) 11,234 primary votes · 100.00%
Mark Foster 2,229 primary votes · 36.39%
Democratic · Mai Xiong (incumbent)Republican · Mark Foster
D cascade sensitivity
Toss-up baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Mike McFall, who was re-elected with 59.06% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. McFall was being challenged in the primary by Minhaj Chowdhury, with him later winning the primary with 71% of the vote. Republican Larry Szyska won his primary unopposed. Jeff Sparling was chosen as the Green Party's nominee for this district at a convention.
Mike McFall (incumbent) 9,872 primary votes · 70.79%
Larry Syzska 4,312 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Mike McFall (incumbent)Republican · Larry SyzskaGreen · Jeff Sparling
D cascade sensitivity
Lean / watch
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Erin Byrnes, who was re-elected with 56.29% of the vote in 2024, is retiring to run for state senate. Democratic candidates seeking to succeed Byrnes include Jalal Abdallah, Leslie Herrick, and Gary Woronchak. Abdallah won the primary with 51% of the vote. Hassan Nehme, an electrical engineer and disqualified candidate for Michigan's 12th congressional district in 2024, won the Republican nomination unopposed.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Stephanie Young, who was re-elected with 73.52% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Brian Duggan filed for this district and won the
Stephanie Young (incumbent) 16,564 primary votes · 100.00%
Brian Duggan 3,149 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Stephanie Young (incumbent)Republican · Brian Duggan
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Laurie Pohutsky, who was re-elected with 69.75% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Republican Ken Crider won the primary unopposed.
Democratic · Laurie Pohutsky (incumbent)Republican · Ken Crider
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Jason Hoskins, who was re-elected with 78.93% of the vote in 2024, is retiring to run for state senate. The only candidate seeking the Democratic nomination was Kelly Garrett, and the candidates seeking the Republican nomination are Ryan Foster and Ronald Ulmer-Paul, with Foster winning 72% of the vote.
Kelly Garrett 18,581 primary votes · 100.00%
Ryan Foster 1,775 primary votes · 71.60%
Democratic · Kelly GarrettRepublican · Ryan Foster
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Samantha Steckloff, who was re-elected with 65.28% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election and was being challenged by Brandon Young in the primary. Steckloff won 73% of the vote in the primary. Republican candidates include Kevin Hammer and Mitch Swoboda. Hammer later won the primary with 66% of the vote.
Democratic · Samantha Steckloff (incumbent)Republican · Kevin Hammer
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Noah Arbit, who was re-elected with 53.23% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Republican candidates include Hermon Barbe and S. David Sullivan. Sullivan won the primary with 58% of the vote.
Democratic · Noah Arbit (incumbent)Republican · S. David Sullivan
D cascade sensitivity
Highly competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Kelly Breen, who was re-elected with 55.51% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Ross Barranco is the only Republican who filed for this district and won unopposed.
Kelly Breen (incumbent) 12,535 primary votes · 100.00%
Ross Barranco 6,360 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Kelly Breen (incumbent)Republican · Rose Barranco
D cascade sensitivity
Lean / watch
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Matt Koleszar, who was re-elected with 52.50% of the vote in 2024, is retiring and running for the state senate. Lisa McIntyre, the treasurer of the Northville Public Schools Board of Education, won the
Lisa McIntyre 18,042 primary votes · 100.00%
Casey Noce 9,927 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Lisa McIntyreRepublican · Casey Noce
D cascade sensitivity
Highly competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Jason Morgan, who was re-elected 61.51% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Challenging Morgan is Republican Miriam Corvino. Christina Marudas was selected as the Green Party nominee for this district at a convention.
Jason Morgan (incumbent) 11,924 primary votes · 100.00%
Miriam Corvino 4,503 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Jason Morgan (incumbent)Republican · Miriam CorvinoGreen · Christina Marudas
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Ranjeev Puri, who was re-elected 59.82% of the vote in 2024, is running for re- election. Republican Allison Fuller has also filed to run for this district and won the primary unopposed.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Peter Herzberg, who was re-elected with 58.93% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Republican Dawn Udell has also filed to run for this district and won the primary unopposed.
Peter Herzberg (incumbent) 11,396 primary votes · 100.00%
Dawn Udell 4,405 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Peter Herzberg (incumbent)Republican · Dawn Udell
D cascade sensitivity
Lean / watch
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Dylan Wegela, who was re-elected 65.72% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Republican Chris Dobis has also filed to run for this district and won the primary unopposed.
Democratic · Dylan Wegela (incumbent)Republican · Chris Dobis
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Rylee Linting, who was elected with 52.16% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The Democratic nominee in this district is Jaime Churches, a former representative of this district who was first elected in 2022 and lost to Linting in 2024.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Jamie Thompson, who was re-elected with 54.36% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrat Sherry Berecz has filed paperwork to fun in this district and won the primary unopposed.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican James DeSana, who was re-elected with 55.03% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrats Darian Counts and Rich Li have also filed paperwork to run for this district. Counts later won the primary with 56% of the vote.
Darian Counts 4,727 primary votes · 55.51%
James DeSana (incumbent) 6,620 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · James DeSana (incumbent)Democratic · Darian Counts
D cascade sensitivity
Lean / watch
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican William Bruck, who was re-elected with 64.54% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Omar Ferdin, with him winning the primary unopposed.
Omar Ferdin 7,843 primary votes · 100.00%
William Bruck (incumbent) 8,646 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · William Bruck (incumbent)Democratic · Omar Ferdin
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Reggie Miller, who was re-elected with 50.64% of the vote in 2024, is retiring. Shannon Dare Wayne, a Milan city councilor, has been endorsed by Miller and is running to succeed her. Businesswoman Laura Perry is seeking the Republican nomination. Both won their primaries unopposed.
Shannon Dare Wayne 12,571 primary votes · 100.00%
Laura Perry 7,720 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Shannon Dare WayneRepublican · Laura Perry
D cascade sensitivity
Highly competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Jimmie Wilson Jr., who was re-elected with 75.08% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. William Riney is challenging Wilson in the
Jimmie Wilson Jr. (incumbent) 14,789 primary votes · 79.30%
Mike Eller 1,361 primary votes · 58.04%
Democratic · Jimmie Wilson Jr. (incumbent)Republican · Mike EllerGreen · Ryan Sample
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Morgan Foreman, who was elected with 74.22% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Catherine Rogers is the only Republican who filed for this district. Both won their primaries unopposed.
Morgan Foreman (incumbent) 21,578 primary votes · 100.00%
Catherine Rogers 3,621 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Morgan Foreman (incumbent)Republican · Catherine Rogers
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Nancy Jenkins, who was elected with 64.07% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Both Democrats who filed for this district were either disqualified or withdrew. Jenkins won her primary unopposed and is unopposed in the general election.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Jennifer Wortz, who was elected 74.07% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrat Jeff Cooley has filed to run for this district as well. Both won their primaries unopposed.
Jeff Cooley 5,030 primary votes · 100.00%
Jennifer Wortz (incumbent) 9,403 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Jennifer Wortz (incumbent)Democratic · Jeff Cooley
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Steve Carra, who was re-elected with 68.35% of the vote in 2024, has filed for re-election. Constantine Township trustee Max Coon and Luke Lori are challenging Carra in the
Cole Slaski 5,856 primary votes · 100.00%
Steve Carra (incumbent) 5,945 primary votes · 58.48%
Republican · Steve Carra (incumbent)Democratic · Cole Slaski
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Brad Paquette, who was re-elected with 64.89% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Republican Steve Bury challenged Paquette in the primary, with Paquette winning it with 89% of the vote. Democrat Angela Jones filed for this district and won the primary unopposed.
Republican · Brad Paquette (incumbent)Democratic · Angela Jones
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Joey Andrews, who was re-elected with 53.15% of the vote in 2024, ran unopposed in the primary. Mark Krieger also ran unopposed for the Republican nomination, and the Green Party nominated Jett Newton as their candidate.
Democratic · Joey Andrews (incumbent)Republican · Mark KriegerGreen · Jett Newton
D cascade sensitivity
Competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Pauline Wendzel, who was re-elected with 63.09% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Wendzel is being challenged by Bill Sage in the
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Matt Longjohn, who was elected with 57.4% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Republican Robert Sitarski has filed to run for this district as well. Both won their primaries unopposed.
Matt Longjohn (incumbent) 16,733 primary votes · 100.00%
Robert Sitarski 6,998 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Matt Longjohn (incumbent)Republican · Robert Sitarski
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Julie Rogers, who was re-elected with 75.64% of the vote in 2024, is retiring to run for the state senate. Democrats seeking to succeed Rogers include Jen Strebs, the chairwoman of the Kalamazoo County Commission, and Jessica Swarts, an attorney who previously ran for Michigan's 4th congressional district in 2024. Strebs defeated Swartz with 56% of the vote. The only Republican who filed paperwork for this district is Nicole Sabel. The Libertarian Party nominated Rafael Wolf at convention.
Jen Strebs 8,217 primary votes · 55.61%
Nicole Sabel 2,116 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Jen StrebsRepublican · Nicole SabelLibertarian · Rafael Wolf
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Matt Hall, who was re-elected with 57.46% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrats running for this seat include Nick Rowe, an Air Force veteran, and Bill Korb, a U.S. Army veteran. Rowe defeated Korb with 59% of the vote, while Hall won his primary unopposed.
Nick Rowe 7,092 primary votes · 58.75%
Matt Hall (incumbent) 9,443 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Matt Hall (incumbent)Democratic · Nick Rowe
D cascade sensitivity
Competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Rachelle Smit, who was elected with 72.07% of the vote in 2024, has filed for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Alan Swank. Both won their primaries unopposed.
Republican · Rachelle Smit (incumbent)Democratic · Alan Swank
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Steve Frisbie, who was elected with 50.07% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat running is Jim Haadsma, a former state representative for this district from 2019 to 2025. This is a rematch of the 2024 election.
Jim Haadsma 7,619 primary votes · 100.00%
Steve Frisbie (incumbent) 5,014 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Steve Frisbie (incumbent)Democratic · Jim Haadsma
D cascade sensitivity
Highly competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Sarah Lightner, who was re-elected with 69.59% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Randy Davis. Both won their primaries unopposed.
Randy Davis 7,615 primary votes · 100.00%
Sarah Lightner (incumbent) 10,557 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Sarah Lightner (incumbent)Democratic · Randy Davis
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Kathy Schmaltz, who was re-elected with 52.07% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat running for this district is Jan Maino, a therapist and president of the East Jackson School Board.
Republican · Kathy Schmaltz (incumbent)Democratic · Jan Maino
D cascade sensitivity
Highly competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Carrie Rheingans, who was re-elected with 60.13% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Republican running for this district is Justin Griffis.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Jennifer Conlin, who was re-elected with 51.50% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Republican running for this district is Brian Ignatowski, the nominee for this district in 2024. This is a rematch of the 2024 election.
Jennifer Conlin (incumbent) 17,042 primary votes · 100.00%
Brian Ignatowski 9,464 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Jennifer Conlin (incumbent)Republican · Brian Ignatowski
D cascade sensitivity
Competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Ann Bollin, who was re-elected with 58.86% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat running for this district is Dan Pelchat, who previously served as the mayor of South Lyon. The Libertarian Party nominated Trevor Step at convention.
Dan Pelchat 10,772 primary votes · 100.00%
Ann Bollin (incumbent) 9,324 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Ann Bollin (incumbent)Democratic · Dan PelchatLibertarian · Trevor Step
D cascade sensitivity
Competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Jason Woolford, who was elected with 67.64% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Cassie Canedo. Both won their primaries unopposed.
Cassie Canedo 9,376 primary votes · 100.00%
Jason Woolford (incumbent) 12,575 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Jason Woolford (incumbent)Democratic · Cassie Canedo
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Matt Maddock, who was re-elected with 59.52% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrats who filed for this district include Stacey McDuffie and Gary Murrell. McDuffie won the primary with 65% of the vote.
Stacey McDuffie 7,973 primary votes · 65.20%
Matt Maddock (incumbent) 11,866 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Matt Maddock (incumbent)Democratic · Stacey McDuffie
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Mike Harris, who was re-elected with 62.03% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrats who filed for this district include Brendan Leddy and Tom Owensby. Leddy won the primary with 55% of the vote.
Brendan Leddy 6,132 primary votes · 55.13%
Mike Harris (incumbent) 11,467 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Mike Harris (incumbent)Democratic · Brendan Leddy
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Brenda Carter, who was re-elected with 65.85% of the vote in 2024, has filed for re-election. Carter is being challenged by Democrat Robert Anderlie in the primary. Melissa Schultz, the 2024 Republican nominee for this district, is running again. This is a rematch of the 2024 election.
Brenda Carter (incumbent) 10,133 primary votes · 93.01%
Melissa Schultz 3,307 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Brenda Carter (incumbent)Republican · Melissa Schultz
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Donni Steele, who was re-elected with 52.41% of the vote in 2024, is retiring to run for the state senate. Republicans Roman Gaskey and Jeffrey Omtvedt have filed to succeed Steele. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Sarah Pounds. Gaskey narrowly won his primary with 50% of the vote, while Pounds was unopposed.
Sarah Pounds 12,280 primary votes · 100.00%
Roman Gaskey 4,849 primary votes · 50.32%
Republican · Roman GaskeyDemocratic · Sarah Pounds
D cascade sensitivity
Toss-up baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Mark Tisdel, who was re-elected with 53.73% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat running for this district is Alex Hawkins, a bomb disposal officer in the Michigan Army National Guard.
Alex Hawkins 12,613 primary votes · 100.00%
Mark Tisdel (incumbent) 9,423 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Mark Tisdel (incumbent)Democratic · Alex Hawkins
D cascade sensitivity
Toss-up baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Sharon MacDonell, who was re-elected with 57.19% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Republican running for this district is Ashok Baddi.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Thomas Kuhn, who was re-elected with 57.24% of the vote in 2024, has filed for re-election. The only Democrat running for this district is attorney Tom Turner.
Tom Turner 8,899 primary votes · 100.00%
Thomas Kuhn (incumbent) 5,397 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Thomas Kuhn (incumbent)Democratic · Tom Turner
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Ron Robinson, who was elected with 53.19% of the vote in 2024, has filed for re-election. The only Democrat running for this district is Katrina Manetta.
Katrina Manetta 9,671 primary votes · 100.00%
Ron Robinson (incumbent) 6,066 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Ron Robinson (incumbent)Democratic · Katrina Manetta
D cascade sensitivity
Lean / watch
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Doug Wozniak, who was re-elected with 68.58% of the vote in 2024, is retiring. Multiple Republicans are running to succeed Wozniak, including Macomb County commissioner Sylvia Grot, Matt Grubb, and accountant Jean Zott. Grot won the primary with 49% of the vote. The only Democrat running for this district is Jason Robbins.
Jason Robbins 8,690 primary votes · 100.00%
Sylvia Grot 5,513 primary votes · 48.72%
Republican · Sylvia GrotDemocratic · Jason Robbins
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Joseph Aragona, who was re-elected with 62.17% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat running for this district is Amy Gray.
Amy Gray 10,160 primary votes · 100.00%
Joseph Aragona (incumbent) 8,838 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Joseph Aragona (incumbent)Democratic · Amy Gray
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Denise Mentzer, who was re-elected with 50.72% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Mentzer is being challenged by Mahbube Khan in the primary, with Mentzer winning 84% of the vote. Republicans running for this district include Chippewa Valley Schools trustee Robert Wojtowicz and businessman John Grossenbacher, both of whom ran for this district in 2024. Wojtowicz won the primary with 72% of the vote, making this a rematch of the 2024 election.
Democratic · Denise Mentzer (incumbent)Republican · Robert Wojtowicz
D cascade sensitivity
Competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Alicia St. Germaine, who was re-elected with 55.99% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrats who filed for this district include Phil Anosike, Craig Plesco, and Matthew Smith. Smith won the primary with 61% of the vote.
Matthew Smith 5,865 primary votes · 61.23%
Alicia St. Germaine (incumbent) 8,272 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Alicia St. Germaine (incumbent)Democratic · Matthew Smith
D cascade sensitivity
Lean / watch
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Jay DeBoyer, who was re-elected with 67.70% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrats who filed for this district include Robert Kelly-McFarland, the 2024 nominee for this district, and Jamie Sonneberger. Sonneberger won the primary with 65% of the vote.
Jamie Sonneberger 5,816 primary votes · 64.51%
Jay DeBoyer (incumbent) 12,178 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Jay DeBoyer (incumbent)Democratic · Jamie Sonneberger
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Joseph G. Pavlov, who was elected with 61.04% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Ken Heuvelman.
Ken Heuvelman 8,944 primary votes · 100.00%
Joseph G. Pavlov (incumbent) 9,911 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Joseph G. Pavlov (incumbent)Democratic · Ken Heuvelman
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Jaime Greene, who was re-elected with 74.27% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrats who filed for this district include James Andonoff and James O'Brien. O'Brien won the primary with 59% of the vote.
Republican · Jaime Green (incumbent)Democratic · James O'Brien
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Josh Schriver, who was re-elected with 68.04% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat running for this district is Ned Zimmer.
Republican · Josh Schriver (incumbent)Democratic · Ned Zimmer
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Phil Green, who was re-elected with 63.83% of the vote in 2024, has filed for re-election. Republican Sherri Cross has filed for this district as well, challenging Green, while Leslie Getz is the only Democrat to have filed. Green won the
Leslie Getz 9,582 primary votes · 100.00%
Phil Green (incumbent) 8,990 primary votes · 82.21%
Republican · Phil Green (incumbent)Democratic · Leslie Getz
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican David Martin, who was re-elected with 54.49% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrats who filed for this district include Isaiah Grays, a former congressional intern, and Matt Schlinker. Schlinker went on to with the
Matt Schlinker 8,646 primary votes · 67.40%
David Martin (incumbent) 8,047 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · David Martin (incumbent)Democratic · Matt SchlinkerLibertarian · Deanna L MartinIndependent · Joe McHugh
D cascade sensitivity
Competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Jasper Martus, who was re-elected with 56.25% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Republican who filed for this district is Patrick Duvendeck. The Libertarian Party nominated Adam Blake Childress at a convention.
Democratic · Jasper Martus (incumbent)Republican · Patrick DuvendeckLibertarian · Adam Blake Childress
D cascade sensitivity
Competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Cynthia Neeley, who was re-elected with 79.35% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Republicans who filed for this district are Larry Hutchinson and Rob Waskoviak. Hutchinson won the primary with 61% of the vote.
Democratic · Cynthia Neeley (incumbent)Republican · Larry Hutchinson
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Brian BeGole, who was re-elected with 62.63% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Stephen Schlaack, a member of the Owosso planning commission.
Stephen Schlaack 10,997 primary votes · 100.00%
Brian BeGole (incumbent) 10,454 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Brian BeGole (incumbent)Democratic · Stephen Schlaack
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Mike Mueller, who was re-elected with 60.80% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Thomas Ryan.
Thomas Ryan 11,805 primary votes · 100.00%
Mike Mueller (incumbent) 9,181 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Mike Mueller (incumbent)Democratic · Thomas Ryan
D cascade sensitivity
Lean / watch
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Julie Brixie, who was re-elected with 54.78% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Republicans who filed for this district include Daniel Ewart, Norm Grant, and Joshua Rockey. Rockey won their primary with 40% of the vote.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Kara Hope, who was re-elected with 64.25% of the vote in 2024, is retiring. Democrats running to succeed Hope include teacher Aaron Iturralde and Harold Pope, the president of the Lansing NAACP. Democrat Tyjuan Thirdgill has also filed for this district, and the only Republican who filed is Clinton Tarver. Pope won the
Harold Pope 7,184 primary votes · 46.61%
Clinton Tarver 3,997 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · Harold PopeRepublican · Clinton Tarver
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Penelope Tsernoglou, who was re-elected with 59.11% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Republican who filed for this district is Frank Lambert.
Democratic · Penelope Tsernoglou (incumbent)Republican · Frank Lambert
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Angela Witwer, who was re-elected with 54.78% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Republicans who filed for this district include Bill Kaiser and John Ludtke. Kaiser won the primary with 69% of the vote.
Democratic · Angela Witwer (incumbent)Republican · Bill Kaiser
D cascade sensitivity
Toss-up baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Emily Dievendorf, who was re-elected with 60.20% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Republican who filed for this district is Sally Nelton. The Libertarian Party nominated Jennifer Long at a convention.
Democratic · Emily Dievendorf (incumbent)Republican · Sally NeltonLibertarian · Jennifer Long
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Gina Johnsen, who was re-elected with 68.59% of the vote in 2024, is retiring to run for the state senate. Republican Ionia County commissioner Terence Frewen has announced a campaign to succeed Johnsen, while Kaleb Hudson, Miguel Pilar, and Brandon Strong have all filed paperwork for this district. Strong won the primary with 50% of the vote. The only Democrat who filed for this district is nurse Rachel Gross. The Libertarian Party nominated Ben DeJong at convention.
Rachel Gross 8,058 primary votes · 100.00%
Brandon Strong 5,743 primary votes · 50.25%
Republican · Brandon StrongDemocratic · Rachel GrossLibertarian · Ben DeJong
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Angela Rigas, who was re-elected with 66.21% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Zach Abbott.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Phil Skaggs, who was re-elected with 57.14% of the vote in 2024, is retiring to run for the state senate. Kent County commissioner Kris Pachla has announced a campaign for this district, while Lily Cheng-Schulting and Kristen Fauson have both filed paperwork. Cheng-Schulting won the primary with 40% of the vote. The only Republican who filed for this district is Doug Lee.
Lily Cheng-Schulting 6,792 primary votes · 40.36%
Doug Lee 7,211 primary votes · 100.00%
No general-election table in source compilation
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Stephen Wooden, who was elected with 55.71% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Republican who filed for this district is Holly DeBoer.
Stephen Wooden (incumbent) 16,170 primary votes · 100.00%
Holly DeBoer 8,025 primary votes · 100.00%
No general-election table in source compilation
D cascade sensitivity
Lean / watch
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Kristian Grant, who was re-elected with 75.07% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Another Democrat, Robert Womack, filed for this district, but Grant won with 74% of the vote. The only Republican who filed for this district is Ryan Malinoski, the nominee for this district in 2024. This will be a rematch of the 2024 election.
Kristian Grant (incumbent) 11,583 primary votes · 73.94%
Ryan Malinoski 2,673 primary votes · 100.00%
No general-election table in source compilation
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat John Wesley Fitzgerald, who was re-elected with 53.12% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Republican who filed for this district is Cindy Ramirez.
primary results 8,619 primary votes · 100.00%
Cindy Ramirez 4,671 primary votes · 100.00%
Democratic · John Wesley Fitzgerald (incumbent)Republican · Cindy Ramirez
D cascade sensitivity
Competitive
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Carol Glanville, who was re-elected with 55.06% of the vote in 2024, is retiring to run for the state senate. Democrats Khristian Silvis, a U.S. Army veteran, and Justin Rackham are running to succeed Glanville, who has also endorsed Silvis. Silvis won the primary with 79% of the vote. The only Republican running for this district is Drew Jake Robbins, a former president of the Grand Rapids City Commission.
Khristian Silvis 10,906 primary votes · 78.65%
Drew Jake Robbins 6,925 primary votes · 100.00%
No general-election table in source compilation
D cascade sensitivity
Lean / watch
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Bradley Slagh, who was re-elected with 70.39% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Slagh defeated a primary challenger, John O'Brien, with 84% of the vote. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Richard Abraham.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Nancy DeBoer, who was re-elected with 56.10% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat running for this district is Joseph McClusky.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Will Snyder, who was re-elected with 59.33% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Republican who filed for this district is Cody Chipman.
Will Snyder (incumbent) 9,858 primary votes · 100.00%
Cody Chipman 4,220 primary votes · 100.00%
No general-election table in source compilation
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
HD-088Incumbent defeated / successor contest2024 presidential baseline R+8.2 · CompetitiveR+8.2
Greg VanWoerkomRep
Incumbent defeated / successor contest2026 cycle
R+8.22024 presidential margin in district
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Greg VanWoerkom, who was re-elected with 56.97% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Another Republican, Ethan Frasier, has filed for this district as well. VanWoerkom defeated Frasier in the primary with 90% of the vote. The only Democrat running for this district is Kiel Reid, a small business owner.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Luke Meerman, who was re-elected with 69.31% of the vote in 2024, is retiring. Republicans seeking to succeed Meerman include Patrick Kapenga and Joe Moss, an Ottawa County commissioner and co-founder of Ottawa Impact. Moss won the primary with 55% of the vote. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Meegan Zickus.
Meegan Zickus 7,234 primary votes · 100.00%
Joe Moss 7,215 primary votes · 54.85%
No general-election table in source compilation
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Bryan Posthumus, who was re-elected with 63.52% of the vote in 2024, is retiring. Republicans who have filed for this district include former state representative Lynn Afendoulis, Susannah Watts, Andrew Willis, and Jordan Youngquist. Afendoulis won the primary with 49% of the vote. The only Democrat running for this district is Courtland Township trustee Rachel Crowther.
Rachel Crowther 12,023 primary votes · 100.00%
Lynn Afendoulis 6,647 primary votes · 49.47%
No general-election table in source compilation
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Pat Outman, who was re-elected with 71.45% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is carpenter Frank Lafata.
Frank Lafata 7,292 primary votes · 100.00%
Pat Outman (incumbent) 10,961 primary votes · 100.00%
No general-election table in source compilation
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Jerry Neyer, who was re-elected with 57.52% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Luke Del Castillo.
Luke Del Castillo 8,081 primary votes · 100.00%
Jerry Neyer (incumbent) 7,185 primary votes · 100.00%
No general-election table in source compilation
D cascade sensitivity
Lean / watch
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Tim Kelly, who was elected with 68.97% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Serenity Hope Salak, a substitute teacher and candidate for Michigan's 35th Senate district's special election in 2026.
Serenity Hope Salak 8,429 primary votes · 100.00%
Tim Kelly (incumbent) 10,686 primary votes · 100.00%
No general-election table in source compilation
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Democrat Amos O'Neal, who was re-elected with 68.87% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Republican who filed for this district is Don Sugg.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Bill G. Schuette, who was re-elected with 64.29% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrats who filed for this district include teacher AnnMarie Horseman and mechanic Gary VanBlaricum. Horseman won their primary with 80% of the vote.
AnnMarie Horseman 8,768 primary votes · 79.61%
Bill G. Schuette (incumbent) 10,083 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Bill G. Schuette (incumbent)Democratic · AnnMarie Horseman
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Timothy Beson, who was re-elected with 60.33% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat running for this district is Bay City mayor Chris Girard.
Republican · Timothy Beson (incumbent)Democratic · Chris Girard
D cascade sensitivity
Lean / watch
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Matthew Bierlein, who was re-elected with 70.36% of the vote in 2024, is retiring to run for the state senate. Republicans running for this district include U.S. Army veteran Briar Bearss and Saginaw County commissioner Mike Piotrowski. The Democrats who filed for this district are Jack Bader and Kandie Sherman. Bearss and Bader won their respective primaries and will face each other in the general election.
Jack Bader 5,030 primary votes · 56.37%
Briar Bearss 8,889 primary votes · 68.44%
Republican · Briar BearssDemocratic · Jack Bader
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Gregory Alexander, who was re-elected with 74.02% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Keith Brusseau.
Keith Brusseau 6,526 primary votes · 100.00%
Gregory Alexander (incumbent) 13,270 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Gregory Alexander (incumbent)Democratic · Keith Brusseau
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Mike Hoadley, who was re-elected with 71.09% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is David Forgione. The Libertarian Party nominated Steven Jacob Lull at a convention.
David Forgione 8,228 primary votes · 100.00%
Mike Hoadley (incumbent) 12,797 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Mike Hoadley (incumbent)Democratic · David ForgioneLibertarian · Steven Jacob Lull
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Tom Kunse, who was re-elected with 69.29% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is businesswoman Tracy Ruell.
Tracy Ruell 7,482 primary votes · 100.00%
Tom Kunse (incumbent) 11,625 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Tom Kunse (incumbent)Democratic · Tracy Ruell
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Joseph Fox, who was re-elected with 70.44% of the vote in 2024, is retiring to run for the state senate. Republicans who filed for this district include farmer Luke Eising, Gary Anderson, Jaxon Deur, Ben Townsend, and Rich Vance. Deur went on to win the primary with 26% of the vote. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Christopher Crain.
Christopher Crain 7,488 primary votes · 100.00%
Jaxon Deur 3,523 primary votes · 26.47%
Republican · Jaxon DeurDemocratic · Christopher Crain
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Curt VanderWall, who was re-elected with 63.79% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Angel Coon. The Libertarian Party nominated Shawn Orton at a convention.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
the incumbent Democrat Betsy Coffia, who was re-elected with 52.09% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Republican who filed for this district is Edwin Dean. The Libertarian Party nominated Michael Gorbe at a convention.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican John Roth, who was re-elected with 62.93% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Mitchell Distin. The Libertarian Party nominated Alexander Jarvis at a convention.
Mitchell Distin 11,012 primary votes · 100.00%
John Roth (incumbent) 13,022 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · John Roth (incumbent)Democratic · Mitchell DistinLibertarian · Alexander Jarvis
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Ken Borton, who was re-elected with 71.73% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Rachel Longendyke-Teeter. The Libertarian Party nominated Frank Tillman at convention.
Ken Borton (incumbent) 13,916 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Ken Borton (incumbent)Democratic · Rachel Longendyke-TeeterLibertarian · Frank Tillman
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Cam Cavitt, who was re-elected with 69.58% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrats who filed for this district include Phillip Aderhold and Mary Hamilton. Hamilton defeated Aderhold with 63% of the vote.
Republican · Cam Cavitt (incumbent)Democratic · Mary Hamilton
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Parker Fairbairn, who was elected with 60.67% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. Democrats who filed for this district include Melissa Perron and Brendan Ryan. Perron won the primary with 62% of the vote.
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican David Prestin, who was re-elected with 66.36% of the vote in 2024, is retiring to run for the state senate. Republicans running to succeed Prestin include Menominee mayor Casey Hoffman, Menominee County commissioner Larry Johnson, teacher Christopher Reynolds, Mackinac County commissioner Daryl Schroeder, and Steven Viau. One more Republican, Kurt Perron, has also filed to run in this district. Johnson went on to win the primary with 30% of the vote. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Rachel Keys.
Rachel Keys 7,977 primary votes · 100.00%
Larry Johnson 3,469 primary votes · 29.60%
Republican · Larry JohnsonDemocratic · Rachel Keys
D cascade sensitivity
Safe baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Karl Bohnak, who was elected with 51.61% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat running for this district is physician assistant Anna Aho Rink.
Anna Aho Rink 13,673 primary votes · 100.00%
Karl Bohnak (incumbent) 9,540 primary votes · 100.00%
Republican · Karl Bohnak (incumbent)Democratic · Anna Aho Rink
D cascade sensitivity
Toss-up baseline
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
CVAP field2020–24 Census SLDL source; exact row queued for ingestion
The incumbent Republican Gregory Markkanen, who was re-elected with 63.07% of the vote in 2024, is running for re-election. The only Democrat who filed for this district is Houghton city councilor Brian Irizarry.
Republican · Gregory Markkanen (incumbent)Democratic · Brian Irizarry
D cascade sensitivity
Likely
SOURCE STATUS · Primary-result compilation cross-checked to Michigan SOS result gateway; general candidate status remains subject to canvass/official November listing. 2024 presidential lean is a descriptive baseline, not a forecast.
08 · Gen Z / Millennials / voting mode
Participation layer
58%MI 18–29 turnout · 2024Tufts CIRCLE / MDOS
37.6%MI 18–29 turnout · 2022Midterm youth turnout
1.214M2026 primary votes before Aug. 4MDOS, Aug. 3
16.5%Active voters already votedBefore primary Election Day
Youth turnout comparison
MI 18–29 · 2022
37.6%
MI 18–29 · 2024
58%
U.S. 18–29 · 2024
47%
Use rule: cohort data measure participation gaps—registration, ballots cast and voting mode. They are not a license to infer individual political preference or construct demographic persuasion profiles.
09 · Core strategy
Electoral Cascade Model — measure the wave
1. Statewide environment
Governor + U.S. Senate establish the top-ticket swing and candidate-specific delta.
2. District transmission
Translate statewide swing into each CD/SD/HD conditional on that district’s own prior baseline.
3. Candidate effect
Estimate incumbency, open-seat and candidate-specific residual instead of assuming straight-ticket voting.
4. Turnout decomposition
Separate preference shift from changes in participation by geography, age cohort and voting mode.
Scientific standard: fit coefficients on prior cycles, test them out-of-sample, publish mean absolute error and calibration, and carry uncertainty intervals. A “blue wave” becomes an empirical scenario only after the transmission coefficient is backtested.
10 · Source register / audit trail
Primary sources first
Michigan Department of State — Elections / Aug. 4, 2026 Primary Results: https://www.michigan.gov/sos/elections
Michigan Department of State — Election results & data: https://www.michigan.gov/sos/elections/election-results-and-data
Michigan official 2026 candidate listing: https://mi-boe.entellitrak.com/etk-mi-boe-prod/page.request.do?electionType=PRI&electionYear=2026&page=page.miboePublicReport
Census — 2026 State Legislative Districts: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/rdo/state-legislative-district.html
Census — 2020–2024 CVAP special tabulation: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/voting-rights/cvap.html
EAC — 2024 Election Administration and Voting Survey: https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/2024_EAVS_Report_508.pdf
MDOS — Aug. 3, 2026 early/absentee turnout: https://www.michigan.gov/sos/resources/news/2026/08/03/one-day-before-the-aug-4-primary-election-more-than-1-million
MDOS / Tufts CIRCLE — Michigan youth turnout: https://www.michigan.gov/sos/resources/news/2025/09/09/tufts-university-report-michigan-had-nations-largest-young-voter-turnout-increase-in-2024-elections
Congressional post-primary cross-check: Associated Press Michigan 2026 U.S. House results; Michigan Advance 2026 General Election voter guide; Reuters race calls for key districts.
State House / State Senate bulk extraction: post-primary district result tables compiled from public 2026 Michigan legislative-election tables, with the Michigan SOS result gateway designated as the authoritative certification source. The build deliberately labels live-cycle nominations as subject to canvass.
Methods: Multilevel Regression & Poststratification literature; Kuriwaki et al., Cast Vote Records database (42.7 million 2020 ballots across 20 states), demonstrating measurable ticket splitting.
Important: 2026 State Senate CVAP is not filled with 2024-district values. Census explicitly says Michigan changed its upper-chamber plan for 2026 and ACS data for 2026 SLDs will be released later. Lower-chamber boundaries did not receive the same Michigan 2026 remap notice.